——–
UPDATE at 2pm (Tuesday, September 3, 2019):

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

…DORIAN’S CORE MOVING FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…
…DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ON GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB…28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by NWS Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight.  A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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UPDATE at 11am (Tuesday, September 3, 2019):

Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

…DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE…
…DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight.  A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

 

———-

ALERT #45 ON HURRICANE DORIAN ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 9:00 AM EDT, TUESDAY, 3RD SEPTEMBER 2019.

… THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORIAN IS BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…
…MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN EYE WALL OF DORIAN CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED OR COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 8AM EDT, THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 78.4 DEGREES WEST.  THIS POSITION PUTS THE EYE OF DORIAN ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT, GRAND BAHAMA, 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BIMINI, AND 156 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NEW PROVIDENCE.

DORIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 1 MILE-PER-HOUR.  A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.  ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DORIAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY’S DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IN NEW PROVIDENCE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG FEEDER BANDS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE ABACOS.  WITHIN THESE FEEDER BANDS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. RESIDENTS IN BIMINI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION, OUR DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS OVER THE ISLANDS OF ANDROS, NEW PROVIDENCE, THE EXUMAS, CAT ISLAND AND NEIGHBOURING CAYS.

SINCE DORIAN IS SLOW-MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, A LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. NEAR THE COAST THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON ABACO ISLAND TODAY.

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 30 INCHES; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES.  FLOODING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SEVERAL AREAS ON THE ISLANDS OF NEW PROVIDENCE, ELEUTHERA, ANDROS, EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, AND LONG ISLAND.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS LARGE TO DANGEROUS SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE NEXT ALERT ON HURRICANE DORIAN WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON, TUESDAY  3RDSEPTEMBER 2019.

PREPARED BY: JEFFREY SIMMONS

 

 

Source:
BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
Forecast Office Section