Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

…MARIA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AFTER MOVING OVER DOMINICA…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.7N 61.9W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM WNW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…942 MB…27.82 INCHES

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 61.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased only slightly, to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

NEWS ITEM ON HURRICANE JOSE ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FORECAST OFFICE SECTION, AT 6PM MONDAY 18TH SEPTEMBER 2017.

…..JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH….

… DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES….

AT 5PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8° NORTH AND LONGITUDE 71.1° WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSE IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MILES PER HOUR (MPH) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE NEXT NEWS ITEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 6AM TUESDAY 19TH SEPTEMBER 2017.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: SHEZELLE MATHER
18/09/2017