Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Key factors driving NOAA’s forecast:
The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season… Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm.”
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is not a landfall forecast.
The 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.
Local preparedness:
Eleuthera’s three administrative districts in North Eleuthera, Central Eleuthera and South Eleuthera confirmed that there have been a few additions and changes to the Official Hurricane Shelter List. (See 2026 Shelter List for Eleuthera at the end of the article – Please monitor official updates for any changes or additional shelter information)
The Incident Command Centers (ICC) for Eleuthera, from which emergency response efforts will be managed during any hurricane related event, are located at the Office of the Administrator in Rock Sound for the South Eleuthera District; at the BTC building in Governor’s Harbour for the Central Eleuthera District; and at the Office of the Administrator in Upper Bogue for the North Eleuthera District.
Island Administrator for Central Eleuthera, Mrs. Rochelle Anderson, informed, “Hurricane preparedness pamphlets have been prepared for distribution. Residents in the various townships can reach out to their Township Committee Chairpersons for updates and information specific to their communities. General/National information will be shared via the official government channels and media sources, including ZNS.”
Telephone contacts for council leaders in Central Eleuthera, shared for the benefit of the public, were listed as follows: Gregory Town – Josh Daniels 470-1734; Hatchet Bay – Patricia Bain 470-0173; James Cistern – Denario Evans 425-6136; Governor’s Harbour – Margaret Seymour 552-9364; Palmetto Point – Sais Cooper 470-0374; and Savannah Sound – Alva Bootle 554-5693.
National preparedness:
Last year, ahead of the 2025 hurricane season, the Bahamas’ Disaster Risk Management Authority (DRMA) said it had taken a proactive approach to preparedness, conducting region-specific table-top simulation exercises, ensuring that each island command center was tailored and trained for the unique challenges of its location. A renewed focus was also placed on the national shelter system, with upgraded shelter lists, which included capacity data and accessibility features – to give clearer information to families, to determine if a shelter was suitable for their needs.
Island administrators in each Family Island were also equipped with new satellite phones and Starlink technology – to ensure that the flow of information would continue in the event of legacy telecommunication system failure. A new disaster alert system was also launched by the DRMA in 2025, allowing critical warnings, watches, and evacuation orders to be sent directly to mobile devices.
A key message to residents this year, once again, is not to wait to get prepared, but to get storm-ready now. Residents are encouraged to secure their homes (reinforce windows, clear drains and secure loose items), clear debris from their properties, secure important documents, stock up on necessary medications and medical supplies and ensure they have other essential emergency items readily available. Residents are also encouraged to make a specific family plan in the event of emergencies, to know their shelter, as well as evacuation routes.
For official updates, preparedness information, and emergency announcements throughout the hurricane season, residents are encouraged to follow the Disaster Risk Management Authority (DRMA), the Bahamas Department of Meteorology, and the Public Hospitals Authority on their official social media platforms.
2026 OFFICIAL HURRICANE SHELTER LIST (Eleuthera Districts)
ELEUTHERA, CENTRAL DISTRICT
1 Wesley Methodist Church Hall – Palmetto Point – 50 Persons
2 Church of the Nazarene – Palmetto Point – 50 Persons
3 The Salvation Army – Palmetto Point – 40 Persons
4 Emily G. Petty Primary School – Governor’s Harbour – 80 Persons
5 George E. Johnson Memorial Centre – Hatchet Bay – 50 Persons
6 Bahamas Methodist Habitat (Camp Symonette) – James Cistern – 100 Persons
ELEUTHERA, NORTH DISTRICT & HARBOUR ISLAND
1 Charles Wesley Methodist Church – Lower Bogue – 150 Persons
2 Mission Church of God – Upper Bogue – 70 Persons
3 The Current Community Centre – The Current – 30 Persons
4 Haitian Baptist People Church – The Bluff – 80 Persons
5 Zion Methodist Church – Current Island – 50 Persons
6 New Jerusalem Church – Blackwood – 200 Persons
7 Sir George Robert’s Public Library – Harbour Island – 30 Persons
8 Lighthouse Church of God – Harbour Island – 150 Persons
9 New Alliance Church of God – Harbour Island – 20 Persons
10 Methodist Church – Harbour Island – 100 Persons
ELEUTHERA, SOUTH DISTRICT
1 Church of God of Prophecy – Tarpum Bay – 70 Persons
2 Deep Creek Primary School – Deep Creek – 50 Persons
3 Green Castle Primary School – Green Castle – 190 Persons
4 Wemyss Bight Primary School – Wemyss Bight – 140 Persons
