…A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 6:00 PM EST THURSDAY, 12TH NOVEMBER, UNTIL 9:00 PM EST FRIDAY, 13TH NOVEMBER, AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS FROM 3:00 PM EST FRIDAY, 13TH NOVEMBER, UNTIL 12:00 PM (NOON) EST SATURDAY, 14TH NOVEMBER…
…Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the front from Thursday night to Saturday morning, bringing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours and waterspouts…
…Much cooler air and fresh north to northwest winds follow on Friday night and Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is expected for the Northern Bahamas and the Gulf Stream, with a Small Craft Caution for the Northwest Bahamas…
High pressure that has kept the northern half of the country mostly fair is moving toward the northeast away from the area. A deepening area of low pressure over the eastern United States will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday, dragging a strong cold front off the southeastern United States coast on Thursday. A pre-frontal trough will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northern Bahamas tonight and to the Northwest Bahamas by Thursday evening. The cold front is expected to reach the Northern and Northwest Bahamas early on Friday, sweeping south-eastward across the Central Bahamas by afternoon into evening hours on Friday. It is expected to stall near the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Saturday night.
A deepening upper-level trough over the eastern United States will bring colder air aloft over the northern islands, while moisture from the Caribbean remains over the central and southern islands. This combination will support organised showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Some thunderstorms may become strong to severe, particularly over the Northwest and Central Bahamas on Friday. Behind the front, the coolest air of the season so far will spread over the Northern and Northwest Bahamas on Friday night and Saturday.
Severe Weather Watch:
A Severe Weather Watch is in effect for the Northwest Bahamas (New Providence, Andros, the Berry Islands and Eleuthera) and the Central Bahamas (Exuma, Cat Island, Long Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay) from 6:00 PM EST Thursday, 12th November, until 9:00 PM EST Friday, 13th November. A watch means that conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms. Residents should review their plans and be ready to act if a Severe Weather Warning is issued.
A Severe Weather Watch is also in effect for the Southeast Bahamas (Inagua, Acklins, Crooked Island, Mayaguana and Ragged Island) from 3:00 PM EST Friday, 13th November, until 12:00 PM (noon) EST Saturday, 14th November, as the front moves into the area and stalls nearby. The Northern Bahamas will be monitored closely and may be added to the watch.
Land Impacts:
Thunderstorms:
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, damaging wind gusts, brief heavy downpours and possibly small hail. Gusty winds may topple loose objects, signs and tree limbs and may cause power interruptions. In the Southeast Bahamas, the risk continues on Friday night and Saturday morning. Residents should secure loose outdoor items on Thursday, stay indoors during thunderstorms and keep away from windows. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Flooding:
Brief heavy rain may cause localised flooding of roads and low-lying, poorly drained areas, mainly in the Northwest and Central Bahamas on Friday. Motorists should not drive through flooded roads.
Cooler Temperatures:
Minimum temperatures on Friday night and Saturday morning are expected to fall into the mid 60s °F (about 18 °C) over the Northern Bahamas, and into the mid to upper 60s °F over the Northwest Bahamas. Vulnerable persons should dress warmly at night.
Marine Impacts:
Ahead of the front, southwest to west winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected on Thursday and Friday, with strong gusts and higher seas in and near thunderstorms. Waterspouts are possible. Behind the front, northwest to north winds of 15 to 20 knots will develop over the Northern Bahamas on Friday evening and over the Northwest and Central Bahamas during Friday, with occasional gusts to near gale force over the Northwest and Central Bahamas. These winds continue through Saturday morning before turning north to northeast. North winds blowing against the Gulf Stream current will produce steep, choppy seas. Seas on north-facing Atlantic exposures and in the Gulf Stream are expected to build to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally higher.
Small craft operators in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should complete their trips by Friday afternoon and remain in port on Friday night and Saturday. Vessels should not attempt to cross the Gulf Stream from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts and alerts from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.
Rip Currents:
There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Atlantic coastlines, increasing on north-facing beaches of the Northern and Northwest Bahamas on Friday night and Saturday. Beachgoers should exercise extreme caution.
The Bahamas Department of Meteorology will continue to monitor the front and will issue further statements, and Severe Weather Warnings, if required. The public should monitor all forecasts and warnings.
