Alert #5 on Hurricane Milton – Wednesday October 9th, 2024 at 12 AM EDT

Alert #5 on Hurricane Milton
(Issued by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, Wednesday October 9th, 2024 at 12 AM EDT.)

…Milton is expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida late on Wednesday as a dangerous major hurricane…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the islands of the Northern Bahamas.  This includes Grand Bahama, the Abacos and Bimini.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions could be experienced on these islands within 36 hours.

At 11 PM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.4 degrees north and longitude 86.5 degrees west, or about 405 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, or about 490 miles west-southwest of Alice Town, Bimini, or about 535 miles west-southwest of Freeport, Grand Bahama, or about 630 miles west-southwest of Marsh Harbour, Abaco, or about 580 miles west-southwest of New Providence.

Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 MPH.  A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight through Wednesday.  A turn toward the east-northeast and east with an increase in forward speed is expected on Thursday and Friday.   On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 MPH with higher gusts.  Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Rain-bands from Hurricane Milton will begin to spiral across the Northern and Northwest Bahamas by late afternoon on Wednesday.  Residents in the islands of Bimini, Grand Bahama and Abaco, including all surrounding Cays, are urged to continue preparations for possible tropical storm conditions that will begin on Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions include winds in excess of 40 MPH, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with tornadic activity likely.

Severe flooding is anticipated in low-lying and flood-prone areas.  Residents in or near known flood-prone areas are urged to take extra precautions while maneuvering in these areas.

Residents in the Northwest Bahamas which includes: Andros, The Berry Islands, New Providence, and Eleuthera should continue to pay close attention to all further Alerts on Hurricane Milton issued by the Department of Meteorology.

ISSUED BY:  K. WARD-FORBES

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Special Weather Statement Concerning Significant Land and Marine Impacts Associated with Hurricane Milton and other Tropical Systems

Issued at 3:00 pm EDT, Monday 7^th October, 2024

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology continues to monitor tropical systems that will indirectly impact the Bahamas for this week:

Monday 7^th – Friday 11^th: The Bahamas Department of Meteorology is currently monitoring the progress of Hurricane Milton, a powerful Category 5 hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Milton is anticipated to pass to the north of the Bahamas, across Central Florida, on Wednesday and Thursday.  Ahead of Milton, a low pressure system will develop along a frontal boundary that will sag across the northernmost islands later tonight. This low pressure system is another area of interest that currently has a 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 2 days, and will not develop into a tropical cyclone while it remains across The Bahamas. The combined effects of these systems will produce strong to gale force winds, squally conditions, torrential downpours and elevated flood risks for the Northern and Northwest Bahamas throughout the week. Lingering swells from post-tropical cyclone Kirk continues to build seas along Atlantic exposures throughout the week.

• Potential Impacts

To the following areas: Northern and Northwest Bahamas

1.         Localized flooding will occur, with the moderate to high chance of flash flooding, due to squally weather mixed with prolonged, moderate to heavy rainfall, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
2.       Rain bands from Hurricane Milton and the low pressure system across the Northern Bahamas may produce possible tornadic or waterspout activity.

iii.      Strong, gusty winds will impact the area overnight into Tuesday morning, and again on Wednesday night continuing through to Friday afternoon, with winds possibly reaching gale force strength at times across the Northern Bahamas (Grand Bahama, Abaco and Bimini) as Milton passes north of the area.

1.       High seas of 12 to 18 feet may start to build late Thursday (October 10^th) in the areas of the Northern Atlantic exposures, just outside of the Little Bahama Bank, the Northern Great Bahama Bank, Gulf Stream, and Eastern Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas into the weekend.
2.       There is a marginal risk of coastal erosion in areas impacted by high seas and rough surf.

• Marine Advisory

A Gale Watch is currently in effect for the surrounding waters of the Northern (Grand Bahama, Abaco and Bimini) and Northwest Bahamas (New Providence, Andros, The Berry Islands and Eleuthera). Mariners in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should seek safe harbor by Wednesday morning before sea conditions deteriorate, and should remain in port until sea conditions improve.

Mariners, particularly small craft operators across all areas, are strongly urged to avoid venturing into Atlantic waters, as well as all Atlantic channels, due to the presence of large mixed swells of 6 to 9 feet which began on Saturday (October 5^th).

• Public Advisory

The public is advised to keep abreast of all severe weather issuances and updates issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.  Residents should remain vigilant due to the high potential of excessive flooding for this week.

Beach-goers are urged to refrain from entering the waters of the northern and eastern Atlantic shorelines. Visitors are strongly advised to avoid entering the Queen’s Bath. Pedestrians and motorists are urged to exercise extreme caution while travelling along coastal roads, especially the Glass Window Bridge in Eleuthera.

Expected Winds and Sea conditions from Monday (07/Oct/2024) through Friday (11/Oct/2024)

Expected Rainfall

• For the Northern Bahamas (Grand Bahama, Abaco and Bimini):

o   Total rainfall accumulation of 4 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches through 8 am Friday.

• For the Northwest Bahamas (New Providence, Eleuthera, Andros and The Berry Islands):

o   Total rainfall accumulation of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maxima of 8 inches through 8 am Friday.

• For the Central Bahamas (The Exumas, Cat Island, San Salvador, Rum Cay and Long Island):

Total rainfall accumulation of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima 4 inches through 8 am Friday.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Valid (8am Monday (07/Oct/2024) to 8am Friday. (11/Oct/2024)

Prepared by: The Bahamas Department of Meteorology