Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Event, Sea Swells, and Abnormal Spring Tide.
(Issued at 12:00 pm EST, Monday 16th September, 2024)
An upper-level trough will remain across the Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens throughout the week. This feature will interact with an atmospheric river of deep tropical moisture, drawn across the Bahamas by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (8) which is currently located off the coast of the Carolinas. This system is also expected to generate moderate northeasterly swells that will infiltrate Bahamian waters, beginning today through Wednesday. We are currently experiencing an Abnormal Spring Tide event that will continue through to Monday 23rd September 2024.
As a result, there is an elevated risk of severe, squally weather that will generate instances of heavy rainfall. Swells generated from Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (8) will elevate local seas and potentially lead to hazardous maritime conditions along Atlantic exposures for a few days. The spring tides for this week will lead to excessive flooding as well as higher seas during high tide across the island chain.
Impacts:
In the Northern and Northwest Bahamas which includes Grand Bahama, Bimini, Abaco, Berry Islands, Andros, New Providence, and Eleuthera.
• Severe weather with heavy rainfall will begin today and continue until Monday morning.
• Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local maxima up to 10 inches or higher possible.
• 4 to 6 feet seas in moderate swells today through Tuesday night.
In the Central Bahamas which includes Exuma, Cat Island, San Salvador, Rum Cay, and Long Island:
• Severe weather with heavy rainfall will begin today and continue into Sunday evening.
• Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with local isolated maxima up to 8 inches possible.
• 3 to 5 feet seas in moderate swells today through Tuesday Afternoon.
In the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands which includes Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins, Ragged Island, Long Cay, Providenciales, and Grand Turk:
• There will be two significant periods of severe weather with heavy rainfall; the first beginning today into Tuesday afternoon and the second beginning early Saturday morning and continuing into Monday.
• Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with local isolated maxima of up to 4 inches possible.
• No significant swell activity is anticipated for the next few days.
Land Hazards:
• Periods of severe weather can cause strong gusty winds, dangerous lightning, hail, and possible waterspout or tornadic activity.
• Heavy rainfall (downpours) could trigger flash flooding, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas of The Bahamas. Prolonged rainfall will cause localized flooding. Flood risk will worsen especially during periods of high tide throughout the week.
• Coastal erosion and property damage are possible, especially during periods of high tide. Minor coastal flooding is possible along coastal roadways on Tuesday into Wednesday.
The public is urged to seek shelter when weather conditions deteriorate. Road users should exercise extreme caution while traversing coastal roadways, as well as low-lying and flood-prone areas when already inundated. Residents living near the coast should take precautions to safeguard property during coastal flooding event.
Marine Hazards:
• Reduced visibility, gusty winds, and higher seas can be experienced within storms. Funnel clouds and waterspouts are also possible during this event.
• Mariners should take precautions while traversing shallow waters and banks during low tide, as they can potentially run aground, particularly from Wednesday to Saturday (18th – 21st).
• 4 to 6-feet long period swells, will increase seas across the Bahamas today (Monday) and ending Tuesday evening. These northeasterly swells will not only elevate seas along Atlantic exposures, but will also filter through the main Atlantic channels and impact the northern and eastern shorelines of New Providence, Berry Islands, The Exumas, and Long Island. Mariners should seek safe harbor when weather conditions deteriorate and remain sheltered until the threat has passed. Small craft operators in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should not venture far from the port today into Wednesday.
Prepared by: The Bahamas Department of Meteorology
———–
