…COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT…
…LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK…
…Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain are expected over the Northern and Northwest Bahamas tonight into Sunday…
…Large northeasterly swells will produce hazardous seas on Atlantic exposures across all regions from Sunday through Wednesday, with dangerous rip currents into Thursday…
At 3:00 PM EDT, a strong cold front extended from the western Atlantic near 31°N 77°W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. A trough of low pressure ahead of the front lay between Florida and The Bahamas, with showers and thunderstorms along and east of it. The front will move into the Northern Bahamas tonight and reach the Straits of Florida by early Sunday. It is then forecast to stall near the Straits of Florida and the Northern Bahamas on Monday and weaken by midweek. Strong high pressure behind the front will drive strong northeasterly winds over the Gulf Stream and send large northeasterly swells into Bahamian waters from Sunday through Wednesday.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Northern and Northwest Bahamas tonight into Sunday, mainly over Grand Bahama, Bimini, Abaco, the Berry Islands, New Providence and Andros. Some thunderstorms will produce frequent lightning, strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and possible waterspouts. Isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible. There is a slight to moderate risk of flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread into the Central Bahamas on Sunday night and Monday. Showers will continue at times on north- and east-facing coasts of the Northern and Northwest Bahamas through Monday.
Winds and Seas:
Northeasterly winds of 25 to 30 knots, with gusts near gale force, will affect the Gulf Stream west of Bimini and Grand Bahama on Sunday and Sunday night. Seas there will build to 9 to 13 feet, occasionally 17 feet. Northeasterly winds blowing against the northward-flowing Gulf Stream will produce steep, closely spaced and dangerous waves. Across the Northern and Northwest Bahamas, northeasterly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots, locally 20 to 25 knots over the banks and channels, from Sunday night through Tuesday. Seas on Atlantic exposures will build to 7 to 10 feet on Sunday and 9 to 13 feet from Sunday night through Monday night. They will then subside slowly to 6 to 9 feet by Wednesday.
Atlantic Swells:
Long-period northeasterly swells will reach the Atlantic exposures of Abaco, Grand Bahama, the Berry Islands and Eleuthera on Sunday. They will spread to Cat Island, San Salvador, Long Island and the Exumas on Sunday night and Monday. The swells will reach the Southeast Bahamas on Monday and Monday night. Seas of 7 to 11 feet are expected on the Atlantic exposures of the Central and Southeast Bahamas from Monday through Tuesday, even though local winds there will be only 10 to 15 knots. Swells will break heavily across reefs, cuts and harbour entrances. Seas of 6 to 9 feet will persist on most Atlantic exposures into Thursday.
Advice to Mariners:
Small craft operators in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should remain in port from tonight until conditions improve. Mariners should not attempt to cross the Gulf Stream from Sunday through Tuesday. Small craft operators in the Central and Southeast Bahamas should remain in port or stay in sheltered waters from Monday through Tuesday, and should avoid Atlantic-exposed passages and cuts. All mariners should secure their vessels and closely monitor marine forecasts issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.
Rip Currents and Surf:
Dangerous to life-threatening rip currents and rough, pounding surf are expected along Atlantic-facing and north-facing beaches in all regions from Sunday through at least Thursday. This includes the northern beaches of New Providence and Grand Bahama. Beachgoers, swimmers and pleasure-craft operators are strongly urged to remain out of the water during this period.
THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
